Obesity rates are set to skyrocket, with one in six children and adolescents worldwide forecast to be obese by 2050, according to a new study.
But with significant increases predicted within the next five years, the researchers stress urgent action now could turn the tide on the public health crisis.
About the research findings
The research, led by Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI), found a third of children and adolescents will be overweight (385 million) or obese (360 million) within the next 25 years. The forecast equates to 356 million children aged 5-14 years and 390 million aged 15-24 years with one in six facing obesity.
The global obesity rate for those between 5-24 years old tripled from 1990 to 2021, rising by 244 per cent to 174 million, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in obesity have failed a generation of young people. As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese.
MCRI Dr. Jessica Kerr said if immediate five-year action plans were not developed, the future was bleak for our youth.
"Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic," she said. Prevention is key as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.
"This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high Body Mass Index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenge, will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren's risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.
"Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030."
Data used for the analysis
The analysis, released on World Obesity Day, used the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation to estimate the latest overweight and obesity levels and forecasts in 204 countries and territories.
The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are forecast to have the highest prevalence while China, Egypt, India and the US will have the greatest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.
In Australia, children and adolescents have experienced some of the fastest transitions to obesity in the world. Girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight.
Overall, by 2050 for those aged 5-24 years, 2.2 million are forecasted to be obese and 1.6 million overweight.
Globally, there will be more boys, 5-14 years, with obesity than being overweight by 2050.
According to the researchers, “to prevent a public health emergency from this newer threat, an immediate imperative should be creating national surveillance surveys of obesity in children and adolescents in every country."
Dr. Kerr said older adolescent girls, aged 15-24 years entering their reproductive years, were a priority population for intervention.
"Adolescent girls who are obese are a main focus if we are to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity, chronic conditions and the dire financial and societal costs across future generations," she said.
"Given this huge global shift in children's and adolescents' weight, we can no longer keep blaming people for their choices. We require governments to step up by addressing regulatory interventions including taxing sugar sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at children and young people and funding healthy meals in primary and secondary schools. We also need to consider the benefits of wider policies such as overhauling urban planning to encourage active lifestyles."
Source: The Lancet, March 8, 2025.
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